Gummistøvler eller løbesko?

Tyskland er Europas største komponentmarked, hvor man ifølge FBDi har oplevet et fald på 25 procent i første kvartal af 2025 i forhold til sidste år. Fremtidsusikkerheden er stor. Skal man beholde gummistøvlerne på eller tage løbeskoene frem?

The German component distribution market fell (according to FBDi e.V.) by almost 25% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same quarter last year. Order intake provides slight impetus. The outlook remains subdued until mid-2025.

FBDi Managing Director Andreas Falke explains:

- After a challenging 2024, component distribution in Germany had to cope with a further decline in the first quarter of 2025. While external factors will determine whether there will be an upturn or stagnation, companies need to prepare strategically. Bottlenecks are not currently expected, even though order intake indicates a revival in demand. However, geopolitical uncertainties mean that protecting critical supply chains is becoming increasingly important, particularly in the electronics industry where success or failure of production depends on availability of single components.

The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant decline of almost 25% compared to the same quarter last year. Reporting members of the FBDi recorded sales of €814 million, the lowest first-quarter figure since 2021. Semiconductors suffered the biggest losses once again, falling 30.5% year-on-year to €492 million.

Passive, electromechanical and power supply components were more stable, with sales of €283 million for passive components representing a decline of 16.7%. Electromechanical components (-9.6%) and power supply components (-8.5%) performed comparatively well.

A ray of hope comes from new orders, which rose to €799 million in the first quarter of 2025 – a 24.1% increase on the same quarter last year. With a book-to-bill ratio of 0.98, there is hope for a noticeable recovery in the second half of the year, with the possibility of achieving a result in line with the previous year overall, especially since 2024 also showed strong consolidation in the second half of the year.

- The economic forecasts for 2025 are the most challenging yet. Geopolitical tensions, rising tariffs and fragile supply chains are causing uncertainty worldwide. The growing fragmentation of the global economy is having a significant impact on growth, with the global economy expected to expand by just 2% this year.

Germany is particularly affected: according to the German Economic Institute, real GDP will fall by 0.2%. US trade policy is causing major disruptions to international trade, limiting global trade in goods to a growth rate of only 1.5% - a development that is having a particularly significant impact on the export-oriented German economy, says Andreas Falke.

Business and government must take bold steps to anticipate and respond to these massive changes. The companies that will be successful in the future are already redesigning their business models today, focusing on innovation, resilience, and sustainable cooperation.

Robust networks with qualified distribution partners and a focus on innovation are therefore key to increasing resilience and proactively shaping the coming changes. The era of purely optimising the price of existing goods is over - now, creative solutions and strategic foresight are needed to ensure long-term success.

About FBDi

Founded in 2003, FBDi e.V. is an established player in the German association landscape and bundles the interests of its members from the distribution sector, who represent around three quarters of the sales volume of electronic components in Central Europe (DACH). In doing so, it oversees the entire electronics value chain.

In addition to the preparation and further development of data on the Central European distribution market, competence teams on important regulatory topics in the electronics industry (including CE, directives and ordinances) generate a high level of market-related competence. This qualifies the FBDi as a sought-after partner for politics, electronics manufacturers and customers.

Through its membership in the international distribution association IDEA, the FBDi exchanges information with other associations at the European level.